ReubanBrightwood is correct that we don't pre-plan RP actions per our Site's metagaming rules.
Regarding the assumptions your character is making on Orders. I let the first post slide. But now you have a second and are talking about pushing the issue.
I'm going to tell you to stop right now.
This popped up a few months ago on discord and it didn't go over then and it won't now.
You are borderline metagaming. You know that Witch and Winter are GoV and are stretching to try and come up with IC reasons to have Philip magically come to that conclussion.
Philip can safely assume that neither Witch or Winter are FC (she has said she doesn't know the state of that are of the Circle, and neither said 'oh me too!' with his intro)
Rationale of "they aren't aggressive enough for Adamantine Arrow" or "not assertive enough for Silver Ladder" doesn't fly for me as valid IC knowledge that would push to have Philip be able to sus out their order after two meetings.